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		<title>What do Trump&#8217;s new tariffs mean for the economy? Experts weigh in</title>
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					<description><![CDATA[U.S. stocks tumbled on Friday in the immediate aftermath of sweeping new tariffs issued by President Donald Trump. A weak jobs report intensified the selloff, as a downward revision of prior estimates indicated a hiring slowdown had begun in May as initial tariffs took hold. The combination of elevated tariffs and sluggish hiring could hurtle [&#8230;]]]></description>
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<p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao MvWXB TjIXL aGjvy ebVHC ">U.S. stocks <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/Business/stocks-tumble-after-trump-unveils-sweeping-new-tariffs/story?id=124272914" target="_blank">tumbled</a> on Friday in the immediate aftermath of sweeping new tariffs <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/Business/trump-unveils-tariff-rates-set-effect-week/story?id=124249032" target="_blank">issued</a> by President Donald Trump. A weak jobs report <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/Business/hiring-expected-slowed-july/story?id=124238397" target="_blank">intensified</a> the selloff, as a downward revision of prior estimates indicated a hiring slowdown had begun in May as initial tariffs took hold.</p>
<p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">The combination of elevated tariffs and sluggish hiring could hurtle the U.S. toward an economic double-whammy known as &#8220;stagflation,&#8221; in which the economy slows while prices rise, analysts from Moody&#8217;s Analytics, accounting firm EY and Fitch Ratings told ABC News.</p>
<p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">Such a prospect could pose a challenge for the Federal Reserve, which risks heating up inflation further if it <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/Business/fed-expected-hold-interest-rates-steady-resisting-trumps/story?id=124185010" target="_blank">lowers interest rates</a> or tipping the U.S. into a recession if it raises rates.</p>
<p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">The latest jobs data amounts to a &#8220;bright red flare that the economy is being hurt by the tariff policy,&#8221; Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody&#8217;s, told ABC News. &#8220;And that&#8217;s before the tariffs are fully implemented.&#8221;</p>
<p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">Trump&#8217;s executive order late Thursday laid out rates to be applied against nearly 70 countries, ranging from 10% to 41% in what a Trump administration official hailed as the beginning of a &#8220;new system of trade.&#8221; The new duties are now set to go into effect on Aug. 7.</p>
<p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">The new levies hiked the average effective tariff rate to 18.3%, the highest since 1934, the <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/state-us-tariffs-august-1-2025" target="_blank">Yale Budget Lab</a> said.</p>
<p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">The tariffs announced late Thursday came hours before a jobs report on Friday morning showed a marked cooldown in hiring.</p>
<p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">The U.S. added 73,000 jobs in July, which came in well below an average of 130,000 jobs added each month this year, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).</p>
<p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">The report also provided new estimates for two previous months, significantly dropping the government&#8217;s estimate of jobs added in May and June. Over those two months, the U.S. added a combined 33,000 jobs, much lower than a previous estimate of 286,000 jobs, BLS data showed.</p>
<p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">Trump <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/Business/hiring-expected-slowed-july/story?id=124238397" target="_blank">fired the BLS commissioner</a> after the jobs report was released on Friday.</p>
<p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">&#8220;Now we have evidence that indeed job growth has slowed significantly over the past few months,&#8221; Gregory Daco, chief economist at accounting firm EY, told ABC News.</p>
<p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">The Trump administration described the downward revisions as an unwelcome sign for the U.S. economy.</p>
<p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">&#8220;Obviously, they&#8217;re not what we want to see,&#8221; Stephen Miran, chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisors, said on Friday.</p>
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<div class="nMMea bNYiy Mjgpa dGwha DDmxa jgKNG RGHCC aBIU PriDW lZur " data-testid="prism-caption">
<p><span class="hsDdd OOSI GpQCA lZur VlFaz " data-testid="prism-truncate"><span><span class="gtOSm FbbUW tUtYa vOCwz EQwFq yCufu eEak Qmvg nyTIa SRXVc vzLa jgBfc WXDas CiUCW kqbG zrdEG txGfn ygKVe BbezD UOtxr CVfpq xijV soGRS XgdC sEIlf daWqJ ">Donald Trump signs an executive order restarting the Presidential Fitness Test in public schools, July 31, 2025, in the Roosevelt Room of the White House in Washington.</span></span></span></p>
<p><span class="gtOSm FbbUW tUtYa vOCwz EQwFq yCufu eEak Qmvg nyTIa SRXVc vzLa jgBfc WXDas CiUCW kqbG zrdEG txGfn ygKVe BbezD UOtxr CVfpq xijV soGRS XgdC sEIlf daWqJ YNujN JGtjI aZFDu rkKLh ">Jacquelyn Martin/AP</span></p>
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<p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">Miran blamed the weak performance in part on uncertainty tied to the fate of <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/exclusive-inside-gops-mission-deliver-trumps-megabill/story?id=123623182" target="_blank">Trump&#8217;s domestic spending legislation</a> as well as the ultimate outcome of the tariff policy. Congress passed Trump&#8217;s spending measure earlier this month; more recently, Trump announced a fresh round of tariffs late Thursday.</p>
<p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">&#8220;Both of those sources of uncertainty are resolved,&#8221; Miran said. &#8220;We expect things to get materially stronger from here, now that our policies are starting to sort into place.&#8221;</p>
<p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">The fluctuating tariffs leave companies with higher tax-related costs alongside continued uncertainty, casting doubt over where expenses will stand from one month to the next, according to EY&#8217;s Daco.</p>
<p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">In response, many businesses will opt to avoid or delay investment, which risks less hiring and slower consumer spending, he added.</p>
<p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">&#8220;We should expect a more pronounced slowdown in economic activity over the second half of the year,&#8221; Daco added.</p>
<p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">The potential cooldown of economic growth may coincide with an uptick of inflation, analysts said, noting that importers typically pass along a share of the tax burden to shoppers in the form of higher prices.</p>
<p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">So far, the U.S. economy has defied analysts&#8217; fears of a large, tariff-induced price spike. But tariffs contributed modestly to the rise of inflation last month, analysts <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/Business/tariffs-blame-rising-inflation-experts-weigh/story?id=123799224" target="_blank">previously told</a> ABC News, pointing to a hike in the price of heavily imported items like toys and appliances.</p>
<p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">Inflation <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/inflation-report-arrive-trump-fed-disagree-tariff-risks/story?id=123735983" target="_blank">stands</a> at 2.7%, which is nearly a percentage point higher than the Fed&#8217;s target rate of 2%.</p>
<p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">Olu Sonola, the head of U.S. regional economics at Fitch Ratings, told ABC News that his firm expects inflation to increase at least an additional percentage point by next year.</p>
<p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">In theory, the central bank could help the economy navigate headwinds by adjusting interest rates, but potential stagflation poses difficulty for the Fed.</p>
<p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">If the Fed raises interest rates as a means of protecting against tariff-induced inflation under such a scenario, it risks stifling borrowing and slowing the economy further.</p>
<p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">On the other hand, if the Fed lowers rates to stimulate the economy in the face of a potential slowdown, it threatens to boost spending and worsen inflation.</p>
<p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC eTIW sUzSN ">&#8220;It clearly presents a conundrum for the Federal Reserve going forward,&#8221; Sonola said.</p>
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