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		<title>&#8216;Huge week&#8217; of economic data set to test Trump&#8217;s tariffs</title>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Jul 2025 09:38:01 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[A flurry of major economic news over the coming days will provide a barometer of the U.S. economy as President Donald Trump&#8217;s tariffs steer the nation toward a trade policy untested in recent history. The economy has largely hummed along so far this year, defying doomsday warnings from many forecasters fearful of the effects of [&#8230;]]]></description>
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<p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao MvWXB TjIXL aGjvy ebVHC ">A flurry of major economic news over the coming days will provide a barometer of the U.S. <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/Business/trumps-recent-trade-agreements-economy/story?id=124131757" target="_blank">economy</a> as President Donald Trump&#8217;s <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/Business/trumps-tariffs-achieved-experts-weigh/story?id=123859218" target="_blank">tariffs</a> steer the nation toward a trade policy untested in recent history.</p>
<p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">The economy has largely hummed along so far this year, defying doomsday warnings from many forecasters fearful of the effects of levies. A cascade of major indicators and a key policy decision this week could display continued resilience or reveal signs of a cooldown, economic experts told ABC News.</p>
<p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">&#8220;It&#8217;s a huge week – this is the Super Bowl for economic data,&#8221; Michael Jones, an economist at the University of Cincinnati, told ABC News. &#8220;It&#8217;s certainly a test for Trump&#8217;s tariff policy.&#8221;</p>
<p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">For starters, a fresh report on <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/Business/gdp-means-matters/story?id=98901694#:~:text=%22GDP%20is%20the%20value%20of,said%20Tilley%2C%20of%20Wilmington%20Trust." target="_blank">gross domestic product</a>, or GDP, on Wednesday will offer the latest look at what&#8217;s considered the top gauge of economic health.</p>
<p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">Economists expect the GDP to have grown at 2.3% on an annualized basis over three months ending in June, rebounding from a <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/Business/us-economy-expected-slowed-sharply-start-trumps-2nd/story?id=121271040" target="_blank">contraction</a> of -0.5% during the previous quarter.</p>
<p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">&#8220;The big thing that we&#8217;ll be looking for is the GDP number,&#8221; William Hauk, a professor of economics at the University of South Carolina who studies international trade, told ABC News. &#8220;A surprisingly strong number would be a good sign for tariffs.&#8221;</p>
<p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">The modest but steady level of growth expected by economists would suggest economic activity remained largely unbothered by tariffs, but the data may be clouded by the levies, analysts said.</p>
<p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">The government&#8217;s GDP formula subtracts imports in an effort to exclude foreign production from the calculation of total goods and services. Changes in the reading on this account do not reveal either underlying economic weakness or strength.</p>
<p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">The measure of GDP fell over the first three months of the year, largely due to a surge of imports as firms stockpiled inventory to avoid far-reaching tariffs. Conversely, a potential dropoff in imports over the second quarter could inflate the second quarter GDP figure, analysts said.</p>
<p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">Hours after the GDP report, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/Business/fed-expected-hold-interest-rates-steady-defying-trump/story?id=122923521" target="_blank">decision</a> on the level of interest rates.</p>
<p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">Investors peg the chances of interest rates holding steady at an overwhelming 97%, according to the <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html" target="_blank">CME FedWatch Tool</a>, a measure of market sentiment.</p>
<p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">Such a decision would mark five meetings and seven months since the Fed last adjusted interest rates. The federal funds rate stands between 4.25% and 4.5%, preserving much of a sharp increase imposed in response to a pandemic-era bout of inflation.</p>
<p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">The Fed has adopted a wait-and-see approach as it observes the effects of Trump&#8217;s tariffs. A decision to hold interest rates steady would indicate persistent concern among Fed policymakers about the possibility of substantial inflation as a result of the tariffs, analysts said.</p>
<p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">The decision is set to arrive less than a week after Trump made an unusual visit to the Fed, ratcheting up pressure on the central bank as the president calls for lower interest rates.</p>
<p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">&#8220;The Fed chair has made clear he&#8217;s data dependent,&#8221; Jones said. &#8220;He won&#8217;t make decisions on a whim or at Trump&#8217;s command.&#8221;</p>
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<p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">On Friday, the federal government will release a jobs report, offering a lens into hiring decisions made by employers and, in turn, their sense of confidence in the economic outlook.</p>
<p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">Economists expect the U.S. to have added 100,000 jobs in July, which would mark solid hiring but a slowdown from 147,000 jobs added a month prior. The anticipated performance would come in below a monthly average of 130,000 jobs added so far this year.</p>
<p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">&#8220;The labor market is not collapsing, but it is starting to run on tired legs,&#8221; Cory Stahle, an economist at Indeed, told ABC News in a statement.</p>
<p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">Even as the initial economic impact of tariffs takes shape, the policy remains in flux.</p>
<p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">The flurry of economic news this week will coincide with a legal test that could undo a major swathe of tariffs. A federal appeals court is set to hear oral arguments on Thursday after a pair of <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/Business/president-trumps-tariffs-after-whiplash-court-rulings/story?id=122323318" target="_blank">rulings</a> in May cast doubt over the emergency authority invoked by Trump to impose so-called &#8220;reciprocal tariffs.&#8221;</p>
<p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">Meanwhile, the White House is threatening additional tariffs on dozens of countries as it races toward a deadline on Friday. Trump struck trade agreements in recent days with major trade partners like Japan and the European Union, but key partners remain without a deal.</p>
<p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy ">While fresh information this week could prove significant, forecasters still face challenges posed by fluctuating tariffs and unforeseen shifts in the data, Jones said.</p>
<p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC eTIW sUzSN ">&#8220;I wouldn&#8217;t take too strong of a conclusion from just one week,&#8221; Jones added.</p>
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